DIRS.INFO The most relevant business & tech news

☆ A 32-year market vet warns the S&P 500 is set to fall 50%-70% in the years ahead with valuations at historic highs — and says that an imminently weakening labor market will be the catalyst for the cra
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

According to Bank of America, valuation levels explain 80% of the market's return over a 10-year period. Bank of AmericaThere are many ways to measure valuation levels in the overall market. Hussman says it's the most accurate indicator of future market returns that he's found. AdvertisementThe Conference BoardThird, the number of US states with a rising unemployment rate is spiking, meaning that the overall unemployment rate should see further upside. BullAndBearProfits.comThe US unemployment rate is already on a slight uptrend, having climbed from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.9% as of February.

Persons: —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, John Hussman's, he's, Warren Buffett, Wolfenbarger, Stocks, Woflenbarger, Cam Harvey, Claudia Sahm, Louis Fed, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, David Rosenberg, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, Treasury, Bank, America's

☆ The main driver of inflation is shelter, says Duke University professor Campbell Harvey
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe main driver of inflation is shelter, says Duke University professor Campbell HarveyCam Harvey, professor of finance at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's rate hike campaign, the leading indicators of inflation, and more.

Persons: Campbell Harvey Cam Harvey Organizations: Duke University, Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business

☆ Wall Street titans including David Rosenberg and Rob Arnott sound off on AI: What they told us about the disruptive technology — from how it will lead to 'permanent displacement' of jobs, to why it's
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

AI's impact on the job marketRob Arnott"Every important disruption since the start of the industrial revolution has cost millions of people jobs. Millions of jobs will be lost to those who know how to use AI. "The implications of generative AI on the labor market will be one of upheaval and one of escalating job uncertainty. Are AI stocks in a bubble? Rosenberg"Advancements in AI technology, and its knock-on effects on profitability and productivity, is a legitimate investment thesis.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rob Arnott, Savita Subramanian, Cam Harvey, Jawad Mian, Jobs, Merrill Lynch, aren't, Rosenberg, Harvey, Arnott, Brad Cornell, Aswath, There's, that's, Savita, –, capex, Mian Organizations: Industries, Investors, Research, Rosenberg Research, North, Bank of America Securities, Duke University, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Tech, Software, Services, Professional Services, IT Services Locations: North American, ChatGPT, Asia, Taiwan

☆ A 31-year market vet who called the current bear market warns an impending credit crunch and recession will sink stocks by 45% as valuations remain higher than dot-com bubble levels
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Indicators like initial and continuing unemployment claims and loan demand show weakness. A recession paired with high valuations spells trouble for stocks, he said. For example, the number of initial unemployment claims is starting to jump at a recessionary pace, Wolfenbarger said. The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims has risen 29% over the last eight months. Hussman FundsWhat others are sayingMany market onlookers have highlighted high stock market valuations in recent weeks.

☆ The housing market’s still in limbo - but homebuyers could pile back into the market if mortgage rates hit this key level
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

"Home sales are trying to recover and are highly sensitive to changes in mortgage rates," NAR economist Lawrence Yun said. He added that home prices are still climbing in regions where jobs are being added and housing is relatively affordable. cutting rates) in the next 12 months, which will again sway the housing sector. With that outlook in mind, the economist said "home sales will steadily rebound despite several months of fluctuations." Even in a tight market, this home expert still sees potential to save money on interest rates.

☆ The economist who discovered the inverted yield curve as a recession indicator now says his model will prove correct again as the Fed continues to hike rates — and that a downturn will strike anytime
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Harvey discovered the inverted yield curve as a recession indicator. Back in December, Cam Harvey made an eyebrow-raising call: the inverted yield curve, the famous recession indicator he discovered in the 1980s, would produce its first false reading since the 1960s. Harvey's yield curve looks at yields on three-month bills and 10-year notes; the latter are normally higher. Another reason Harvey's view has dimmed is that short-term inflation expectations have come down, meaning the real-yield curve (which is adjusted for inflation expectations) has now inverted. In December, Harvey said that much higher short-term inflation expectations relative to long-term expectations meant that real yields weren't inverted.

☆ Here's why history's most reliable recession indicator no longer works
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The inverted yield curve has been one of the most reliable predictors of an imminent recession. In July 2022, the inverted yield curve once again turned negative as the Fed continued to aggressively hike interest rates. But a Monday note from Ned Davis Research argues that the yield curve inversion indicator may no longer be a reliable leading indicator of a coming downturn. Kalish isn't alone in his skepticism of the yield curve inversion indicator. Cam Harvey, the economist and professor who first identified the yield curve as a reliable recession indicator, thinks this time is different.

☆ Recession 2023: Jerome Powell's Legacy Will Dictate Inflation, Stock Market, Economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +15 min

This obsession with controlling inflation — and potentially causing serious pain for average Americans — is driven by one major factor: legacy. High inflation eats away at consumers' purchasing power, and persistent inflation seeps into expectations for price and wage adjustments, which further fuel inflation. What's more, the full impact of the Fed's rate hikes have yet to hit. Legacy actsThere are signs that certain Fed officials are ready to dial back on the inflation fight. And navigating such a tricky economy — without throwing hundreds of thousands of Americans out of work — could cement Powell's legacy.

☆ A 33-year market vet shares why history shows stocks will likely fall more than 20% further before bottoming as a recession barrels toward the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-07 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But Lebowitz thinks there's a much greater chance that a recession occurs, forcing the Fed to back off. And then there's the inverted yield curve, which has preceded every recession since the 1960s. RIA AdvisorsIt's also not a good environment for stocks because yield curve inversions have usually meant large downward earnings revisions, which haven't happened yet. RIA AdvisorsAnother look at history, Lebowitz said, shows that a recession has to be already underway before stocks can bottom out. The yield curve, Chicago PMI, and other analyses argue it's a matter of when but if a recession occurs.

☆ A 30-year investing vet who called the latest bear market warns that stocks have another 41% downside with US economy already in recession and the Fed continuing to ratchet up rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Jon Wolfenbarger thinks the US economy is already in recession. With growth slowing and the Fed still tightening, Wolfenbarger thinks stocks are due for big losses. The S&P 500 is already down around 20% year-to-date. All of that spells further trouble ahead for stocks, Wolfenbarger said, despite the fact that the S&P 500 has already fallen about 20% in 2022. In a recessionary scenario, Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said the S&P 500 could fall to 3,150, though that is not his base case.

☆ A Twitter user poll voted Elon Musk out. Here's how the chaos impacts Tesla
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Hallam Bullock | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

But first, Elon Musk staked his Twitter leadership on a poll and it closed just minutes ago. Elon Musk topped off a turbulent week by launching a poll asking Twitter users whether he should quit as CEO. After SEC filings showed Musk sold about $3.6 billion of Tesla stock, its share price tumbled more than 15% amid a growing view that Twitter is becoming a distraction. This is a developing story and Tesla stock is currently up almost 5% in premarket trading. ICYMI: Phil Rosen, your usual host of this newsletter, discussed the "stunning" state of America's oil industry with Citi's Ed Morse.

☆ The godfather of the inverted yield curve breaks down why his famous recession indicator with a perfect track record won't be accurate this time around
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The inverted yield curve has preceded the last eight recessions. Right now, short-term inflation expectations are much higher than long-term inflation expectations, which means the real-yield on longer-duration bonds are higher. "You've got an inverted yield curve — people know that that's got a very strong track record. The inverted yield curve's legacyThe inverted yield curve has come to be revered as an extremely reliable harbinger of economic pain. December 2022. ustreasuryyieldcurve.comDecember 2012. www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.comAs for what Harvey thinks for the future of the yield curve as a recession indicator?

Search resuls for: "Cam Harvey"

12 mentions found